Abstract of Workshop 2015 - Advances in DEA Theory and Applications with Extensions to Forecasting Models
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of Workshop 2015 -Advances in DEA Theory and Applications with Extensions to Forecasting Models Date December 1 st -2 nd , 2015 Venue: Conference Room 4A, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) Workshop Organizer: Prof. Kaoru Tone, GRIPS December 1 st , 13:25-17:00 13:25-13:30 Opening Remarks: Prof. Kaoru Tone (GRIPS, Japan) 13:30-15:00 Session 1. Chair: Prof. Joseph Paradi (Univ. of Toronto, Canada) 1. “Resampling in Data Envelopment Analysis illustrated by a hospital example” Author: Kaoru Tone (GRIPS, Japan) Abstract: In this paper, we propose new resampling models in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Input/output values are subject to change for several reasons, e.g., measurement errors, hysteretic factors, arbitrariness and so on. Furthermore, these variations differ in their input/output items and their decision-making units (DMU). Hence, DEA efficiency scores need to be examined by considering these factors. Resampling based on these variations is necessary for gauging the confidence interval of DEA scores. We propose two resampling models. The first model utilizes historical data, e.g., past-present, for estimating data variations, imposing chronological order weights which are supplied by Lucas series (a variant of Fibonacci series). The second one deals with future prospects. This model aims at forecasting the future efficiency score and its confidence interval for each DMU. We applied our models to dataset composed of Japanese municipal hospitals.
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